With 8 rounds to go, fortunes are forming… and falling!

After round 7, I ran a Monte Carlo Simulation to gauge where clubs might finish by season end. With much more progress in this shortened season, it is becoming more clear where clubs can aspire to reach… or end up!

Using the latest SportsBet odds to weight clubs’ relative ability and performance, I ran 100 randomised simulations of all match results for rounds 13 to 20. This was the “average” result of 100 simulations.

My projected Round 20 ladder. The Broncos are not even close!

Of course, each game swings on the fortunes of performance, so the following is a picture of the frequency with which each club “finished” in each position on the ladder, from the 100 season simulations.

Frequency distribution – Season finishing position – 100 season simulations

Not surprisingly, we now have some “almost certains”. For the Panthers, Eels and Storm to miss the finals would be take a starkly abhorrent turn of fortunes only the likes of the Eels (or Dragons) could muster.

At the other end of the spectrum, it is probably not surprising that the Titans, Bulldogs and Cowboys are also almost certain to miss the 8. Perhaps the more bold, though fateful, prediction is that the Broncos are done!

The spreads of potentials outcomes for the Raiders and Knights reflect their less solid progress as the season has rolled on.

What do you think of my results? The range of possible outcomes for each team, and my top 8? Do you feel it is a fair shot? Who would you move or swap? Take a punt now, as I have, and let’s see how close I am in 8 weeks!

NRL Round 12 Preview

Your Edge: Big Minute Forwards, How Your Team Fares Against Top 8 Teams & The Knights Conundrum